[SMM Daily Review] bifocal plummeted by more than 2 per cent in the black system, the whole line closed down, colored gold and silver touched the limit of rise and fall in Shanghai, gold and silver in Shanghai.

SMM8 26 June news: today's non-ferrous metal market is mostly green, by the end of the day, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai tin fell nearly 0.9%, Shanghai lead fell nearly 0.8%, Shanghai copper fell nearly 0.6%, Shanghai aluminum fell nearly 0.5%, Shanghai nickel rose nearly 0.8%.

In terms of copper, China imported 292201 tons of refined copper in July, up 38 percent from the previous month, but down 8 percent from the same period last year, according to the website of the General Administration of Customs. Imports of refined copper from January to July this year totaled 1855407 tons, a decrease of 13.2 percent over the same period last year, or about 281300 tons. With the rapid expansion of domestic smelting capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of domestic electrolytic copper is increasing, the dependence on imported copper is decreasing, and the decline of copper financing properties continues to affect the activity of foreign trade copper market. At the same time, after entering the off-season in July, domestic consumption performance is weak, superimposed domestic refined copper supply increased slowly compared with the previous period, stocks rose slightly, leaving relatively limited space for imported copper. "[SMM analysis] imports of refined copper increased month-on-month in July compared with the previous month. In July, imports still decreased compared with the same period last year, and domestic consumption weakened.

In addition, since the escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States, China's imports of copper scrap from the United States have declined rapidly. In February 2018, China imported about 26 percent of its total imports from the United States. At the end of 2018, the proportion of imports fell to just 2 percent, and the proportion rebounded slightly in 2019, accounting for only about 6 percent. The addition of an additional 5 per cent tariff on scrap copper imported from the United States will worsen the trade in scrap copper imported from the United States, causing more domestic scrap copper traders to re-export from parts of the Asia-Pacific region and Southeast Asia in an attempt to circumvent tariffs and raise the cost of scrap copper imports. "[SMM Analysis] impose a 5 per cent tariff on US scrap copper imports have fallen precipitously since friction

In terms of zinc, according to SMM research, the decline in inventory this week is mainly from Shanghai, and the transportation of goods in Guangdong is still on the way in the early stage, and it has not been put into the warehouse for the time being, and the contribution of long single delivery at the end of the month is certain. Tianjin warehouse delivery increased slightly, but the market rigid demand to buy, the overall inventory has not changed greatly; With the end of the overhaul of some northern refineries this week, there may be an increase in shipments in North China, and inventories are expected to increase this Friday. [SMM data] Social stocks of SMM zinc ingots are down 3900 tons from last Friday

In terms of nickel, on August 26, Russia and nickel than Shanghai nickel 1910 sticker 200 to 100 yuan / ton, Jinchuan nickel than shanghai nickel 1910 contract generally reported 900 to 1000 yuan / ton, Russia nickel discount overall quotation continues to narrow, mainly because the domestic import loss is still large, foreign sources inflow less, low-priced goods difficult to receive, the strong willingness of the cargo holder to lift the water. The main reason is that the domestic import loss is still large, the inflow of foreign goods is still small, the low price goods are difficult to receive, and the holder's willingness to lift the water is strong. Jinchuan rising water to maintain stability. In early trading, it stabilized and picked up after a drop of 122600. However, the upper part of the daily moving average is still under pressure. Spot trading is light, Monday wait-and-see mood is strong. In the second trading session, nickel prices rose sharply to around 125000, spot buying was suppressed, the transaction is still flat. The Shanghai ex-factory price of Jinchuan Company is 125000 yuan / ton, 1700 yuan / ton higher than last Friday, and the mainstream transaction is 123400 yuan / ton. "Today's nickel market (8.26) both nickel spot and stainless steel transactions are still in a bullish pattern.

In the black system, coke fell by nearly 3.4%, coking coal by nearly 2.2%, thread by nearly 1.9%, hot coil and iron ore by nearly 1.7%.

Among them, iron ore, Huizhou merchants futures believe that since July, steel demand has weakened, social inventory began to accumulate, and real estate as the most important terminal, in the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "do not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy," it can be seen that it is difficult to stimulate strong demand in the second half of the year. As a result, it can be seen that the downward trend on the steel demand level has already begun. At present, the overseas iron ore production is generally stable, there is a certain incremental space, the late port warehouse has the potential increment of shipment and arrival volume, there is still room to continue to accumulate the reservoir. Market sentiment and expectations of spot prices are weak, superimposed steel prices weaker, forcing upstream profits, drag on raw material prices, iron ore prices under pressure will continue.

Bifocal, Meerya futures believe that coke, limited production of coke enterprises gradually resume production, the overall supply continues to be high and stable operation, plant and warehouse to maintain more in the low. Recently, the weak operation of the steel market, the contraction of steel mill profits, coke two rounds of rise, the overall downstream enthusiasm for coke procurement weakened. It is expected that the coke price is difficult to rise in the later period, and the market shock is weak. Coking coal, spot market stable operation, production maintained normal; imported coal, Australian coal prices become weaker, market participation is general; coking coal demand as a whole is weak; in the short term, coking coal is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, late price depends on coking production limit and capacity removal policy and coal mine safety inspection.

Crude oil fell nearly 0.8% today. The growing trade standoff has heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. 'global economic growth has been hit again, and we think the further increase in growth risks is significant, 'Morgan Stanley said in a report.

Precious metals, trade frictions escalated again, Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver touched the limit. According to Wenhua Financial News, the main force of Shanghai Gold rose sharply on Monday morning, hitting the limit of 360.2 yuan / g at one point, refreshing a more than six-and-a-half-year high. Shanghai silver main force also touched the limit of 4424 yuan / kg, a nearly three-year high. Rising trade tensions between China and the United States boosted risk aversion in the market, and Powell's dove comments helped boost the Fed's expectations of a rate cut in September. In response to the US measures, the Chinese side was forced to take counter-measures and decided to impose tariffs on about US $75 billion of imports originating in the United States. Subsequently, the US side announced that it would raise the tariff rate on about US $550 billion worth of Chinese goods imported into the United States. China strongly opposes this. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told the Jackson Hole annual meeting that we will take appropriate action to maintain economic expansion. The comments were seen by the market as opening the door to the Fed's rate cut in September.

Capital flow today

The trade war has escalated again, global risk aversion has warmed up, gold and silver prices have become clearer, capital inflows have soared, precious metals sectors have topped the list with more than 1.1 billion dollars in capital, and chemical futures have been tedious, with more than 400m funds leaving the market.

(source: Wenhua Finance and Economics)

SMM analyst's brief comment on August 26th

Copper: today, Shanghai Copper main contract 1910 opened at 45980 yuan / ton in the morning, fell to the lowest level of 45840 yuan / ton in the day, and immediately rebounded to around 46060 yuan / ton until the end of the afternoon. In the afternoon, the center of gravity continued to maintain stability in this position until the close, closing at 46020 yuan / ton, down 290 yuan / ton, down 0.63%. Shanghai Copper's main contract position increased by 13000 hands to 255000 hands, mainly by short positions, while trading volume increased by 68000 hands to 186000 hands. Shanghai Copper position performance moved back, Shanghai Copper 1911 contract increased by 11000 hands a day to 149000 hands; Shanghai Copper Index today increased its position by 19000 hands to 650000 hands; and trading volume increased by 121000 hands to 345000 hands. Today, the market continued to maintain a low shock finishing, mainly due to the deterioration of trade tensions, strong risk aversion sentiment, CMX gold hit a five-year high to $1565 / ounce, the dollar is still relatively high, there is also a crackdown on non-ferrous metals. Market pessimism spread, copper prices hovered below the daily average all day. Today, Shanghai copper closed the physical Dayin column, low down to 45800 yuan / ton gate level. Above the EMA into a short arrangement, the formation of copper prices to suppress, the technical side is still negative. In the evening, wait for the guidance of the outside market to test whether Shanghai Copper can stand at the level of 45800 yuan / ton.

Lead: within a day, Shanghai lead main 1910 contract opened at 17060 yuan / ton, at the beginning of the day, the deterioration of macro news, leading to some bulls afraid of high departure, Shanghai lead opened as low as 16895 yuan / ton, followed by a concussion around 16960 yuan / ton, finally closed at 16935 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton, down 0.76%, and increased its position to 42826 hands. Shanghai lead closed the big negative line, broke the upward market, entered the correction stage, but this wave of pullback does not represent the weakness of Shanghai lead fundamentals, but under the deterioration of the macro environment, the mood of the brief catharsis, into September, is still in the traditional peak season of lead consumption, and the supply side will also have a certain reduction, so it is expected that this wave of Shanghai lead market has not yet ended, after a short pullback, there is still a chance to return to the top of Wanqi.

Zinc: the main 1910 contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 18480 yuan / ton at the beginning of the day. At the beginning of the day, the short position quickly pressed the zinc price down 18360 yuan / ton, and then Shanghai zinc returned to the 19440 yuan / ton line. The short position entered the market again. The center of gravity of Shanghai zinc operation moved down to 18400 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the short position force again dragged down Shanghai zinc down. 18275 yuan / ton, closing down 18350 yuan / ton, down 175yuan / ton, down 0.94%, the Shanghai zinc operation center of gravity moved down to 18400 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, the short position again dragged down the Shanghai zinc down, down 18275 yuan / ton, closing down 18350 yuan / ton, down 175yuan / ton, down 0.94%. Trading volume increased by 9120 hands to 318000 hands, and position volume increased by 18968 hands to 227000 hands. During the day, Shanghai zinc recorded a long negative line, attached to the shadow line 5, 10 days EMA suppression intensity, macro mood shows pessimism, the daily increase in positions is mainly short, 09 / 10 contract monthly difference from 80 yuan / ton to 120 yuan / ton, superimposed 11, 12 contracts cumulative increase of nearly 10,000 positions, near weak and far strong pattern further appeared, Shanghai zinc fundamental support temporarily weak, night attention to the lower Brindao lower track support strength.

Nickel: Shanghai nickel 1910 opened at 123550 yuan / ton today. At the beginning of the day, the concussion went down by 122510 yuan / ton and was slightly overhauled, resulting in a narrow range of shock on the daily average under pressure. Subsequently, Shanghai nickel broke through the daily average pull up, touch high 125450 yuan / ton. In the afternoon, Shanghai nickel returned to some gains before noon, concussion fell to the daily average near the support, small fluctuations, finally closed at 124110 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day settlement price rose 990 yuan / ton, up 0.8%, trading volume increased 180000 hands to 964000 hands, position volume decreased 27000 hands to 404000 hands. Today, the outflow of Shanghai nickel 1910 contract funds reached 262 million yuan. Shanghai nickel closed near the 10-day moving average, showing a small positive line, paying attention to the pressure of the 10-day moving average on Shanghai nickel in the evening.

Tin: Shanghai tin main 2001 contract Friday night after the opening of 129300 yuan / ton, the beginning of the day quickly rushed up to the night high 130400 yuan / ton after the shock all the way down. After the opening of 129200 yuan / ton in early trading this morning, it fell rapidly to an intraday low of 127700 yuan / ton due to the pressure of short forces, followed by a slight upward shock in Shanghai tin, finally closing at 128800 yuan / ton, down 930 yuan / ton, down 0.72 per cent. The trading volume was 30994, a decrease of 6102. The position was 38802 hands, an increase of 1268 hands. Today, due to the decline of short positions in Shanghai tin futures in the form of a negative line, but failed to effectively fall below the support level of 128000 yuan / ton, the upper shadow line is under pressure on the 5th EMA. It is expected that the test support below Shanghai tin will be around 128000 yuan / ton. If it falls, the next support is located at the integer gate of 127000 yuan / ton.

< updating >

Scan QR code and apply to join SMM metal exchange group, please indicate company + name + main business